Market-aware sports probability terminal
The market prices every match.
We price the market.
Live prediction-market prices from Polymarket & Kalshi, a 21-book bookmaker consensus, and our calibrated model probabilities — three opinions on every fixture, lined up on one board, with honest staleness on every number.
- Prediction-market mids
- Bookmaker consensus
- Model probabilities
On the wire
snapshot as of 2026-07-24 — updated by hand, never faked01 · Board
Market Board
Every tracked market on one dense grid — model vs Polymarket vs Kalshi vs books, sorted by |edge|, refreshed on an honest poll. j/k to move, ↵ to open, w to watch.
Open the board02 · Model ops
Calibration & Backtests
Reliability curves, Brier/ECE leaderboards and paper-trading backtests. “Did last week’s changes help?” answered by comparing runs — never by vibes.
Open model ops03 · Live capture
Collectors & Status
Websocket tick capture off the Polymarket CLOB, injury feeds, collector health and a fail-closed odds-credit ledger — cheap, load-bearing ops while the crons are young.
Open status